Talladega Superspeedway - The Aaron's 499 (News & Notes)

[HacheMan]

The Aaron's 499
The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series descends on Talladega Superspeedway for the ninth race of the 2010 season, the Aaron's 499. This race at 'Dega promises to be one of the wildest races of this season. Brian Brown took a look at past performances, season trends, and spoke with NASCAR contacts to predict how the field should finish on Sunday.


When: Sunday, April 25, 2010; 1:19 p.m./et


Weather: Isolated T-storms with a high around 86; wind out of the SW at 11 mph. There is a 30 percent chance of precipitation.


The Track: Talladega Superspeedway

Talladega Superspeedway is a 2.66 tri-oval. It has steep 33 degree banking in the turns and 18 degree banking on the straight-aways. The banking allows the cars to run at intense speeds. As a result of these speeds NASCAR has made 'Dega a restrictor plate track. This means all cars entered in the race must use the restrictor plates on their engines to limit air-intake and thus reduce horsepower.


Key to Race: AVOID THE BIG WRECK

As is the case with all restrictor plate races the field will become bunched up in two-wide groups of 20 or 30 cars. These freight train like packs cruise around the track just inches away from each other. It takes just one car to have a flat tire or lose control to cause a massive accident. If a driver can get lucky and stay away from the inevitable big crash they have a great chance to finish inside the top 20. In fantasy leagues a race like this is very difficult to predict. You are almost better off to pick some sleepers like McMurray, Ragan, and Sadler than the regular superstars.


Qualifying Procedures:

46 cars will attempt to qualify for 43 spots. Cars not in the top 35 in the 2010 owners point standings will have to qualify based on speed. Starting positions 1-43 will be determined by qualifying on Saturday, April 23 at 11:35 am/et.


Fantasy Cheat Sheet:

Top 5

No. 2 Kurt Busch: Busch has cracked the top 10 in eight his last 10 starts at Talladega. He is a great option on Sunday.
No. 11 Denny Hamlin: Hamlin has brought fast sleds to Talladega four of the past five trips to the track. He will be strong again this weekend.
No. 48 Jimmie Johnson: Johnson has averaged just a 14th place finish the past eight races at Talladega, but he has been much faster than his average finish at the track. He should be inside the top five when the race goes checkers.
No. 24 Jeff Gordon: Gordon has six career wins at Talladega including both the 2007 races. He could be showered by beer cans again this weekend.
No. 20 Joey Logano: Logano impressed everyone in his first couple trips to Talladega. It wouldn't surprise us if he won on Sunday.


6 to 10

No. 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.: After finishing no worse than second in seven-straight 'Dega races Junior has cracked the top 10 just three times in the past 10 races at the track. He will need lots of luck on Sunday to regain his King of Talladega nickname.
No. 1 Jamie McMurray: McMurray snuck a win at Talladega last November and won at Daytona this year. He is rapidly becoming a force in all restrictor plate races.
No. 14 Tony Stewart: Stewart won the 2008 fall race at Talladega and is itching for a top finish this season. He will push the limits this weekend.
No. 6 David Ragan: Ragan has been better than average at Talladega during his career. He will likely hang back and hope to pick the correct draft on the late laps. This is the best strategy to use at 'Dega and it could result in another top 15 finish for the No. 6.
No. 31 Jeff Burton: Burton has cracked the top 12 the fast four trips to Alabama. He is worth using in all leagues.


11 to 20

No. 42 Juan Pablo Montoya: Montoya has had quality finishes at 'Dega in the past and could surprise with a win this trip to the track. He is driving much better than his place in the point standings. He is a great buy-low candidate.
No. 83 Brian Vickers: Vickers could turn his slow start to the season around this weekend. He won at Talladega in 2006 and has five top eight finishes in the past eight races at the track.
No. 19 Elliott Sadler: Sadler has three poles and has led at least one lap in the past 14 races at Talladega. He is a decent sleeper pick on Sunday.
No. 39 Ryan Newman: Newman has run well in five of the last six Talladega races. He has the ability to run in the front and is an okay pick this weekend.
No. 18 Kyle Busch: Rowdy has averaged just a 26th place finish at Talladega during his career. He has won at the speedway, but we expect he won't have enough patience to take the checkers this weekend.
No. 99 Carl Edwards: Edwards has led just 15 laps in 11 career starts at Talladega and he suffered one of last season's worst wrecks at the track. There are far better tracks to use the 99 car.
No. 17 Matt Kenseth: Kenseth has led just 17 laps in the past six races at Talladega. He will be outside the top 10 when the checkers fly.
No. 12 Brad Keselowski: Keselowski used his front bumper to win last spring's race at 'Dega. He might want to keep an eye on his rearview mirror this weekend.
No. 56 Martin Truex Jr.: Truex Jr. had great cars in four of the past seven races at Talladega. He is a high risk/high reward pick this weekend.
No. 29 Kevin Harvick: Harvick has finished in the top 10 in seven of the last 14 races at Talladega. He will finish outside the top 15 on Sunday.


21 to 30

No. 98 Paul Menard: Menard has run great the past three of the past four 'Dega races. He is a great sleeper pick this weekend.
No. 9 Kasey Kahne: Kahne's average finish at Talladega is 20th. This is a track he would prefer to avoid.
No. 16 Greg Biffle: Biffle's success at Talladega has been very limited. In 14 career Cup starts at the track he has just three finishes better than 13th. His lack of success makes him a risky pick.
No. 5 Mark Martin: Talladega isn't one of Martin's favorite tracks. He will be doing well to crack the top 20 on Sunday.
No. 47 Marcos Ambrose: Ambrose impressed with a fourth place finish at Talladega last spring. He won't be quite so lucky this weekend.
No. 33 Clint Bowyer: Bowyer has more finishes outside the top 30 than he does inside the top 30 at Talladega during his career. Use him at your own risk.
No. 7 Robby Gordon: Gordon has finished inside the top 20 in nine of the last 14 races at Talladega. He is fearless and isn't a bad option as a fifth fantasy driver on Sunday.
No. 43 A.J. Allmendinger: Allmendinger has struggled in all of his career starts at 'Dega. There are better options this weekend.


31 to 35

No. 34 Travis Kvapil: Kvapil has had past success at this difficult track. He is a great pick in deep leagues.
No. 37 Robert Richardson Jr.: Rob Jr. is a bit of a Talladega specialist. He is locked into the race and is worth rolling the dice on for those of you in the deepest of leagues.
No. 55 Michael Waltrip: Waltrip has led at least one lap in 19 of the last 21 races at Talladega. He should lead another few laps and could sneak into the top 25 with a little luck.
No. 00 David Reutimann: Reutimann has finished on the lead lap just twice in six Cup starts at 'Dega. His lack of success at the track makes him a poor pick.
No. 77 Sam Hornish Jr.: Hornish Jr. has been garbage at Talladega during his career. Avoid him.


Field Fillers

No. 26 David Stremme
No. 38 Kevin Conway
No. 71 Bobby Labonte
No. 87 Joe Nemechek
No. 13 Max Papis
No. 35 Aric Almirola
No. 66 Dave Blaney
No. 97 Jeff Fuller
No. 09 Mike Bliss
No. 36 Johnny Sauter
No. 46 Terry Cook


Brownie's Picks

Top Four:

1. Kurt Busch
2. Denny Hamlin
3. Jimmie Johnson
4. Jeff Gordon

Sleepers:

1. Jamie McMurray
2. David Ragan

Bust of the Week:

Mark Martin

 

[HacheMan]

Aaron's 499 at Talladega
Track history: Talladega Superspeedway was built in 1969 in an old soybean field near Anniston, Alabama. Track builders Bill France, Sr. and Bill Ward wanted it to be the biggest and fastest superspeedway on the Cup circuit. It is, without a doubt, the fastest racetrack in the world. Bill Elliott qualified at over 212 mph in 1987 at the 2.66-mile facility, which led to NASCAR's decision to slow down the cars here and at Daytona because speeds were getting unsafe. Both tracks use restrictor plates to limit the horsepower of the cars. Speeds on the straights (4,000 foot backstretch and 4,300 foot frontstretch) still exceed 200 mph.

The track is a high-banked trioval that is four lanes wide, with 33 degree banking at the ends and 18-degree banking in the trioval. For this reason, Talladega has a lot of 3-wide racing and it's not unusual to see the whole field running together at top speed the same as they did when the green flag dropped at the beginning of the race. The drivers run wide open all the way around the track, never lifting except to avoid getting caught up in the big wrecks, which are common in restrictor plate racing.

First Talladega Cup race: On September 14, 1969, after driving the No. 71 K & K Insurance '69 Dodge to a 196.386 mph qualifying lap, Bobby Isaac started on the pole for the first NASCAR Cup race, the Talladega 500. After leading 13 laps, Isaac finished 4th. Richard Brickhouse, in the No. 99 Nichols Engineering '69 Dodge, started 9th and won the race. The average race speed for that event was 153.778 mph.

2009 Aaron's 499: The April 26, 2009 Aaron's 499 was led to the green by pole winner Juan Pablo Montoya's No. 42 Tums Dual Action Chevrolet. He finished 20th after leading 7 laps. The race ended in typical Dega fashion. Ryan Newman (No. 39) and Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88) were battling for the lead on the final lap. Carl Edwards (No. 99) and Brad Keselowski (No. 09) got a run on the leaders, passed them and, while swapping and blocking for the lead, they got together. Edwards' car went airborne into the catch fence after going over Newman's hood. The race finished with Keselowski the winner, Earnhardt 2nd and Newman 3rd. After climbing from his wrecked car, Edwards sprinted across the finish line on foot.

Last Talladega Cup race: Qualifying for the November 1, 2009 AMP Energy 500 was cancelled due to rain and the field was set by owners points. That put Jimmie Johnson and the No. 48 Chevrolet at the point. Johnson's teammate Mark Martin passed him on the first lap. Johnson never led a lap and finished 6th. Martin wasn't as lucky. After the wreck that saw Ryan Newman end up on his roof (he was okay after being cut out of the car) and the subsequent green-white-checker restart, Martin was caught up in another large wreck on lap 190 (he finished 28th). Jamie McMurray started the No. 26 Ford 22nd in the lineup, led the most laps (32 of 191) and picked up his third career victory. The race ended under caution after the lap 190 wreck but McMurray had already taken the white flag.

Your fantasy game won't allow you to pick all track favorites so Mid-Pack Attack is here to help. A mid-packer may not win the race but has as good a shot at a top 15 finish as track favorites Kurt Busch, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson and Tony Stewart. There were 46 cars on the preliminary entry list for this weekend's Cup race. Here are our picks for Sunday's Aaron's 499 in Anniston, Alabama.

Mid-Pack picks

David Ragan finished 8th in his first trip to 'Dega in a 2005 ARCA Re/Max race. In 2006, he ran a truck race; started 2nd, finished 7th. He won his first career Nationwide Series race in the Aaron's 312 here in 2009. Five out six Sprint Cup starts here ended in top 17 finishes. In the fall 2008 race, he had to drop to the rear at the green because of an engine change and worked his way up to finish a Cup career best of 3rd. Only favorite Johnson has scored more championship points at Talladega over the last six Cup races. Ragan has shown he can be a good drafting partner on restrictor plate tracks. He's either been pushed to the front (or was the pusher) by plate pros like Earnhardt Jr., Waltrip and Kenseth. In November, he was part of the last lap mayhem but still managed a 17th place finish. Look for Ragan up front on Sunday.

Brian Vickers returns to the site of his first Sprint Cup victory (October 2006). He said the key to a good day at this track is "You can't let your guard down." That sums up Talladega. He has three top fives and five top tens there, including an 8th and a 13th in 2009. According to NASCAR Statistics' loop data he is the Top Closer (improving positions in the last 10 percent of the race) over the last ten Cup races at the Alabama track. He gained 46 spots in the closing laps of those events. This is a good week to put the No. 83 Toyota on your team.

Jamie McMurray is turning into a restrictor plate ace having won the last two in a row. He's the defending Talladega winner (November 2009) and his No. 1 Chevrolet is on display for a year at the 'Daytona 500 Experience' as the 2010 Daytona 500 winner. The Daytona race was his first start with the Earnhardt-Ganassi team. Along with the 2009 'Dega win, McMurray also has 4 top fives and 5 top tens. Last week, McMurray led early for 10 laps in the Samsung Mobile 500 and spent most of the day running in the top 15. He got caught up in the 9-car wreck on lap 317 and had to settle for a 30th place. Anything can happen at Talladega, but, if he keeps out of trouble, look for McMurray up in the top 15 again this Sunday.

We don't think Brad Keselowski's win in the April 2009 Aaron's 499 was a fluke. He came back last November and finished 9th in the Talladega Nationwide Series race and 8th the next day in the Sprint Cup Series event. In his two Cup races, Keselowski has a 15.5 average running position. He also made 528 "Quality Passes" during those top 15 laps. He struggled earlier this season but has earned top 16 finishes in the last four Cup Series races. Give the Penske Racing No. 12 driver a look this week.

 

[ATP]

lovely, i dont even see regan smith on the program here

 

[johnboland]

Extremely bad weather in the South has produced Tornados in that region of the country today. Depending on how fast the system moves, they may still have some nasty weather lingering around tomorrow morning. However maybe it will move on out by luchtime and NASCAR will get it in.

 

[XPike21X]

No weather. Awesome day with the exception on some wind out of the SW

 

[johnboland]

The first big NASCAR race I went to was the Coca Cola 600 many years ago and Bobby Labonte won. At that time everybody was a Dale Sr. fan Jeff Gordon fan or Mark Martin Fan etc. I cheered for Bobby Labonte for many years, but his lackluster performance over the past couple of years lead me to choose another driver this year. That driver is Martin Truex Jr. He ran good at Daytona but have not seen that much of him since. I will go with him today to have a top ten finish.